bobrulz's WunderBlog

Another month gone by without a blog entry. I keep telling myself I'll post more often, but what happens? I don't.

MASSIVE early season storm

There's an absolutely massive, very early-season storm developing over the Great Basin and bringing historic snowfalls (at least for this time of year) to the mountains and adjacent High Plains of Wyoming and Montana. The northern mountains of Wyoming and southern mountains of Montana will see 2-4 feet of snow, with 1-3 feet across the western and central mountains of Montana and the western mountains of Wyoming. Mountain valleys across the region will see 4-12 inches. Adjacent areas of the High Plains, especially the Billings/Sheridan area, will see 1-2 feet. Heavy snow is already falling in these areas, with 2 feet already being recorded in some mountain regions, especially around Red Lodge, Montana. About 6-12 inches of snow will fall on the High Plains from Canada all the way south through the western Dakotas and into southeastern Wyoming (although staying north of Cheyenne). Blizzard conditions will occur across the plateaus of southern Wyoming. Heavy rain will fall eastward through the rest of the Dakotas and into Minnesota.

Meanwhile, here in Utah...

Farther south, closer to home, 8-16 inches of snow are expected in the Wasatch Mountains, with 2-5 inches along the Wasatch Front. However, the lake-effect will likely kick into gear on Sunday morning (the 12th) and enhance amounts to the east and southeast of the lake. How strong the lake-effect will be and exactly where it will hit, however, is impossible to know yet. Snow on October 11 will tie for the fourth-earliest measurable snow on record!

This brings to mind a similar early season storm that occurred from October 17 - 18, 1984, when a record 18.4 inches fell in 24 hours at the airport due to an unusually vigorous lake-effect, with over 2 feet recorded in some eastern bench regions! It still stands as the sixth-largest storm in Salt Lake City history (since late 1928). However, the dynamics of this system aren't nearly as favorable for a significant lake-effect event such as that again. In addition, the Great Salt Lake was near record high levels in 1984 (it achieved its record in 1986), while today it is near record low levels. Due to the extreme shallowness of the lake, the overall size of the lake is significantly smaller than it was then, so this limits the potency of the lake-effect. Either way, however, this will still be a very significant storm for this time of year.

That October 1984 storm was among the most damaging single snowstorm in Salt Lake City history, since most of the trees were still shedding their leaves at the time, so widespread tree damage occurred. Even small amounts of this heavy, wet snow accumulating on still leafy tree branches (and this storm is 1 week earlier!) can bring them down, and widespread power outages are again possible with this storm despite the relative weakness of it. A potential lake-effect will only exacerbate the situation.

It's COLD!

We saw our first freeze of the year this morning (the 10th), dropping to 32 degrees. This makes it the earliest freeze since it also froze on October 10 back in 1982, a period of 26 years! The last time it froze even earlier was on September 28, 1971 - 37 years ago! The high tied a record low high of 49 degrees, and highs are going to be in the upper 30s/lower 40s for Saturday and Sunday, with hard freezes into the upper 20s expected both nights, especially after it clears out on Sunday night.

Overall this is an exciting and powerful system. Although we won't see the totals that Wyoming and Montana will, the potential for lake-effect and the sheer earliness of this system are very exciting and potentially record-setting (it wouldn't take a whole lot to make this the largest storm to occur this early in the season).