mrpuertorico's WunderBlog

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI NOV 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS... VERY WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER PUERTO RICO...EXPECT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE COASTS STAYING MAINLY DRY. THE VI AND
SURROUNDING WATERS WILL BE WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE AS A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE
PALOMA IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED EAST OF PALOMA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ARE INFLUENCE THIS MORNING BY
THREE IMPORTANT FACTORS. THE FIRST ONE...AND THE MOST RELEVANT...IS
HURRICANE PALOMA WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 300 MILES SOUTH OF
CUBA...MOVING NORTH AT 8 KNOTS. EAST OF PALOMA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...RESULTING IN DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AND THE THIRD SYSTEM IS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF EASTERN
HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. OVER PUERTO
RICO...MODERATED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS
PRODUCING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...A BLEND BETWEEN NAM12 AND
GFS40 WAS MADE TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...IN ACCORDANCE TO THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROUGH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT 09Z MOST ACTIVITY WAS
NORTH OF LUQUILLO AND SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. THIS WILL LAST PERHAPS
AS LATE AS 14Z. OTHER SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED
INTO LUQUILLO AND FAJARDO...CEIBA AND NAGUABO BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY
12Z. LATER IN THE DAY...BETWEEN 17-20Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO AND SPREAD
NORTHWEST...OBSCURING THE MOUNTAINS AND BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS TO TJMZ AND TJBQ. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE INTERMITTENT
AND MAY LAST THROUGH 08/00Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN USUAL IN THE AREA DUE TO WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS.


&&

.MARINE...VERY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS VERY WEAK WINDS AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED.

















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