My 2008 Hurricane season Forecast (July):
13-15 names storms
9 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes


Thursday October 23rd...tropical update...
There are no imminent areas of concern in the tropical Atlantic today. Wind shear is very high in the GOM and in the CATL/EATL (due to the presence of Upper Level Lows/troughs). We're approaching the end of October, and if we're to have any tropical development occuring, it would likely happen in the Caribbean. None of the computer models are forecasting development in the Atlantic, for the next week.

We shouldn't rule out the possibility of a late season storm, either, since during the last few years we've had storms developing in December. Based on climatology, we usually have our last storm in mid November. We're still in La Nina ''conditions'' (and since the year 2000; we've had the last storm form in December during La Nina years, which were 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005 (the last storm for the 2005 ''season'', formed in January of 2006) and last year (2007).

Here is a list of when the last storm formed in the Alantic, since 2000:

2000 - October 29
2001 - December 6
2002 - October 16
2003 - December 11
2004 - December 3
2005 - January 6 (2006)
2006 - October 2
2007 - December 13










NHC tropical weather outlook

NHC tropical weather discussion

SSD Dvorak Intensity Estimates

National Hurricane Center

CIMSS Saharan Air Layer Analysis

CIMSS satellite derived winds and analysis

Atlantic Models

SSD Formation Probability and other Maps

Accuweather Hurricane Centre





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